DB Research presented a study on the long term global growth centers 2006-2020 among 34 countries worldwide. India leads the ranking with an average growth rate of 5,5% p.a.. China is Number 3 in the ranking.
DB Research, think tank of Deutsche Bank group, presented the study "Global Growth Centres 2020" at the 2nd European Futurists Conference in Lucerne / Switzerland in november 2006. The results base on an accurate foresight model, including four major drivers (population growth, investments, human capital, trade openess) and below laying 21 single trends, clustered to 6 consistent trend groups.
India leads the growth race of the next 14 years with an average growth rate of 5,5% before Malaysia (5,4%) and China (5,2%). DB Research identifies the key reasons for the strong growth of asian countries in rising human capital and trade opening.
Amongst the european countries a high GDP per capita is forecasted for France and Austria while surprisingly Spain's GDP per capita will overcome Germany's. For Spain a growth rate of 2,8% is expected, for Germany only 1,5%.Argentina (3,0%) and Brazil (2,8%) lay in the middlefield of the 34 countries (like the USA with 3,1%).
A presentation of the study (29 pages) is available by download as PDF from the link to DB Research below:
DB Research: World Growth Centers 2006-2020 (PDF english, DBR)
DB Research: World Growth Centers 2006-2020 (PDF english, local source)